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[joerules]

I challenged Gordon and Tom to this little contest (we'll be discussing it on the show next week - May 4th) to run through the summer of 2009. We each pick the movies we think will make the most money between May 1st and the end of August. Or in other words - we each try to predict the top ten biggest success of the summer. You get 1 point for each film you have on your list of ten and you get a second point if you correctly predict the spot it will be in. For instance. I have Harry Potter at the number 1 spot. if that makes the most money this summer I get two points. At the end of it all the two losers will have to draw a guest comic for the winner, but it's really for the bragging rights. As I did with the Triple Feature Oscar pool, I'm plying it very conservatively choosing movies I know will do well instead of movies I hope will do well. There is a risk or two though.

1. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - Easy choice. this is the penultimate Potter book. People have been waiting for it and it should top all the other Potter flicks with ease. Their best so far is still the original at 317 million. but I think people will show up just to watch a certain character kick the bucket.

2. Transformers: Rise of the Fallen - The first Transformers took in 319 million in the summer of 2007 and was built up as a must-see event movie. Even as the first wave of audiences flooded the internet with negativity, people had to see for themselves exactly what a truck turning into a robot on the big screen looked like. The curious cat will bite again and get people running to the theater.

3. Up - Up is bound to do well no matter what but it has two very important things going for it. First - it's following Wall E which is largely adored and that will transfer into carryover business. at least a little. Second - It comes out in the last week of May after a month that is overwrought with one testosterone action film after another. Other than Night at the Museum, Up is the first family film of the summer season and is bound to have antsy kids dragging their parents to the theater.

4.Terminator: Salvation - Even people that are down on McG or the continuation of the franchise are still going to check it out - just to see if they fucked it up. The box office still counts though. With a Pg-13 rating the kids can now get in and those giant robots should ensure that they want to be there.

5. Star Trek - The buzz is too strong. People are ready for more Star Trek. It has a soft follow up in Angeles and Demons which should perform well but not steal the younger audiences. Expect Star Trek and Wolverine to pick up some double dipping because of it.

6. Wolverine: Origins - I don't care about the leak or the terrible buzz surrounding this film. People love Wolverine, plus it's the first film of the summer and it'll capitalize on that even if 10% of them watched it online over 3 weeks ago.

7. Night at the Museum - 3 months ago I would've thought that a sequel to A Night at the Museum would clean house but after watching a similar family franchise the Pink Panther 2 nose dive I'm rethinking the draw of this film. People adore the first one but that was this odd little gem hidden in the holiday season. Part 2 could easily get buried in the testosterone of May. It has the advantage of being a solid alternative to the action films though and it also has advanatages in that it looks kind of funny and Amy Adams is adorable. Is she a draw though?

8. Hangover - My dark horse pick is Todd Phillips' return to raunch comedy in this "day after the party" comedy. Trailers have been getting bigger laughs than the movies they run before and I think a to of people will turn out to see Tyson, a tiger and Ed Helms lose a tooth. If the buzz continues to build, Hangover could take advantage of a dim June.

9. Bruno - Borat was a cultural phenomenon but it only made 128 million. Bruno is much more accessible but I can't imagine it capitalizing on hype the same way that Borat did. I'm gicing it a token spot in case it surprises us.

10. Julie and Julia - Hey - you can't count out Streep. Plus, this adult targeting comedy could be exactly what we need to cleanse our palate before G.I. Joe.

So there's my list. there were a ton of runner ups but I have a gut these will be the winners. Feel free to make your list as well!

[smurfwreck]

1. Star Trek
2. Transformers
3. Harry Potter 6
4. Land of the Lost
5. Terminator Salvation
6. Up
7. Night at the Museum 2
8. Ice Age 3
9. Angels & Demons
10. G. I. Joe
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[joerules]

I thought a lot about Ice Age 3, but I decided against it. I'm banking that 1) people are over it and 2) Transformers fever won't quite be over yet. Who knows though. Kids are resilient.

[smurfwreck]

[LincM]

1. Star Trek
2. Transformers
3. Terminator
4. Angels & Demons
5. Wolverine
6. Ice Age 3
7. Night at the Museum
8. Potter
9. Hangover
10. G.I. Joe.

Close runners up? Land of the Lost/Up/Bruno/Brothers Bloom/Drag Me To Hell/Management/Dance Flick/(*The Russell Crowe/Ben Affleck one*)/Year One/Funny People/Sunshine Cleaning

I just don't see Julie & Julia making it in there. The only film I know of of the romcom genre to ever stand up to blockbusters was Notting Hill, released the same day as Episode 1. And to follow, its creators also delivered Love, Actually. Streep, big as she is, just isn't big enough to tackle it. Aniston and Zahn, however. Well, that just looks like good chemistry to me, and Aniston's fans aren't shying away until she actually turns in 20 shitty films (she's on her way to ten though, so she's almost halfway through her "post-friends grace period"... not all bad films, but poorly contributed to by her).

And why did I put Dance Flick as a close runner up? Well, the "Movie Movie" genre (titulated by Brazelbomb) usually sucks, but they do usually draw a crowd, and if it involves the wayans brothers, it usually actually has some funny, and this one features a relatively new and younger Wayans face, with all the actual funny of Damon, including facial expressions, but with the character and physical expression of Marlon. Or is it Shawn? BEcause we seldom see those two apart, I get them mixed up. Whichever one was in Ladykillers, anyway.

P.s. I'm not sure if Sunshine Cleaning will be out in the summer, but I'm just thinking it'd do well because, well, it's kooky and looks unique and interesting.

[joerules]

Sunshine Cleaning was already released in the states. It's up to 9.9 million since it's release in March. I agree that Julie and Julia is a risk but The Devil Wears Prada made 125 million and Mamma Mia made 144 so there's definitely a market for that sort of thing.

[LincM]

[knives]

Harry Potter-guaranteed to surpass 300
Transformers-Same as Potter but more unfortunate placement
Star Trek- While I'm not very hip to this sequel it seems popular enough to make a shit ton, even beating Transformers possibly
Up- Definitley kill the Pixar slump, if you can call it that, should be just under Nemo numbers
Terminator: Similar to Trek, even though I'm hip to this one, PG-13 will push it.
Wolverine: It will probably do the same numbers as X2 Being first helps it out
Angels & Demons- I'm not sure if the less controversy will help this sequel or not
Museum- might be a hit, don't know
Ice Age- The only real competition is Up
Bruno- Honestly I think Land of the Lost will do better, but this looks popular

Public Enimies might sneak in too.

[joerules]

Public Enemies was one I would've liked to add to the list but I think Mann's tendency to make long R rated movies will limit show times and accessibility.

[Tom Brazelton]

Okay, I have my list - and I did my best not to read other's comments as not to taint my own predictions.

1. Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen - The first one made gobs of money - $320M. I think the sequel has the buzz and the majority of people are on board with the robot designs. This will be the one to beat.

2. Harry Potter and The Half Blood Prince - The last three movies have done about $290M each. Pretty impressive track record. At some point you'd think the Law of Averages would kick in, but I think the audience is firmly in place for this franchise.

3. Star Trek - Even though the last few films have been shit, it's been long enough to wash that taste out of our mouths. This is another movie with huge buzz. I think it's going to sweep the legs out from Wolverine in it's first week and it has no competition in the sci-fi/geek category until Terminator: Salvation comes along two weeks later.

4. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian - Never underestimate the power of a kid's film. The last one did $250M. It opens opposite Terminator: Salvation and that's smart counter programming. Up comes out a week later, but Pixar is starting to develop an elitist vibe. As much loved as Wall-E and Ratatouille are, they had trouble clearing $220M in their runs.

5. Up - Another film with great buzz and, I think, a little more of a populist appeal than Pixar's last two films. For some reason, I see this film not only grabbing families, but older movie goers as well. It's rare to make a septuagenarian the hero of your movie. I can see retirees coming out in support of this.

6. X-Men Origins: Wolverine - There's something to be said for being first out of the gate. Opening weekend predictions are tracking at $92M. Star Trek will take a chunk of it's audience and negative reviews might handicap repeat viewings, but that's a hell of a head start. I can see this one crossing the finish line in the $200M range.

7. Angels and Demons - Another movie I think older audiences will come out for. I'm thinking the buzz is pitched lower than it was when The DaVinci Code came out, but Hanks has far-reaching appeal and the older he gets I think the more reverently older audiences will come out to support him. It doesn't hurt that Ewan McGregor is cast in this one, too. A more "serious" film from a director with pedigree for audiences that might be feeling otherwise ignored this season.

8. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - I'm not a fan of the Ice Age franchise, but that doesn't mean it isn't a proven earner. Again, families with disposable income and kids who will see things over and over again will make this one a hit.

9. Terminator Salvation - I wonder i if a movie about a bleak, apocalyptic future will sell tickets in a post-Obama climate. But people love the Terminator franchise and this film is finally taking us somewhere new. McG at the helm handicaps things a little bit, but the buzz on this one is certainly better than Wolverine. Terminator 3 did $150M 6 years ago. I think this movie will keep in line with that, even without Schwarzenegger's name recognition.

10. Funny People - My dark horse candidate. Every summer needs ONE popular comedy and I think Funny People fits the people. I think Apatow's films have built up their brand to the point where people know they will be entertained. The fact that he's maybe grown up a little with this one will appeal to people who are tired of watching movies about characters who fart into each other's pillows. Rogen is hot right now and Sandler always draws people in. Considering Knocked Up did $148M 2 years ago, I think there is potential for Funny People to repeat that achievement.

There you have it. I'm really interested to see how these predictions shake out. Not only how many of my picks end up in the Top 10 by the end of August, but how many of them I managed to place correctly on the list.

Joe, we should do something similar for the holiday season as well!
_________________
THEATER HOPPER -::- Comics about movies.

[joerules]

[Gordon McAlpin]

1. Harry Potter and The Half Blood Prince

2. Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen

3. Night at the Museum

4. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

5. Terminator Salvation

6. Up

7. Star Trek

8. Angels and Demons

9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine

10. Land of the Lost

Pretty much the same as you guys, but no GI Joe because even if it does well, it'll be too late in the summer to rack up the box office before we tally up our scores.
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[Tom Brazelton]

Looks like Gordon and I have the most overlap in our selections.

At this point, it'll be a matter of seeing whose picks land in the appropriate spots on the list.

That is, unless Joe knows something about Julia and Julia that we don't!
_________________
THEATER HOPPER -::- Comics about movies.

[joerules]

I think Land of the Lost is going to go the way of the Love Guru. it might be great but no one will be around to confirm it. We have enough different on our three lists to make it interesting but it may very well come down to who gets lucky and actually lands a spot.

[Tom Brazelton]

The only thing I can see working in Land of the Lost's favor is that Will Ferrell is a promotion machine and shows up in many different and wildly inventive scenarios to promote it.

Remember how Ron Burgundy showed up at the MTV Movie Awards? I think Ricky Bobby was on ESPN and don't forget Jackie Moon selling Old Spice and Bud Light.

Nevermind all of the interviews he does. Usually something memorable on either Letterman or Conan.
_________________
THEATER HOPPER -::- Comics about movies.